In 65 days, the people of Scotland will elect a Scottish Government, which all polls suggest will be the existing one.
One thing, however, is clear – the constitution will soak up most of the political oxygen.
Emphasising the gravity of this decision in the New Statesman, Chris Deerin wrote: “The Holyrood election is the most significant in the more than 20-year history of devolution and among the most freighted democratic events of the 314-year-old union between Scotland and England.”
However, something changed this weekend.
After a run of 22 polls showing growing support for Scottish independence, Survation released one yesterday placing support for the union one percentage point ahead yet, at the turn of the year, support for independence was at an all-time high. So what changed?
Many may point to Alex Salmond’s evidence session on Friday but this poll was held before that took place.
What is clear is Nicola Sturgeon’s chances of a majority have been dealt a blow.
From any vantage point, the last week in Scottish politics has been astonishing.
From a decision at the High Court in Edinburgh to release Alex Salmond’s submission in response to the Scottish Government’s handling of sexual harassment allegations to the Crown Office ordering it to be withdrawn before releasing a redacted version, it has been chaotic at best.
The former first minister delivered his evidence in coherent, fluent and devastating fashion at the Scottish Parliament on Friday.
The night before, I participated in an online conversation held by Our Scottish Future, a think tank pioneered by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
It seeks to facilitate convivial conversations and publish analysis to further co-operation and solidarity between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
What, on reflection, I found interesting is that the Salmond and Sturgeon relationship was not mentioned once by any of the other 10 participants during two hours of conversation.
An even split between union supporters and independence, the conversation was summed up by impassioned contributions from two young participants.
Chelsea, from West Dunbartonshire, was a passionate unionist and believed bigger issues required resolution before another referendum.
Mark, from Glasgow, supported independence and believed a referendum should be held immediately but neither participant, nor anyone else, mentioned either the former or current first minister.
‘Constitution will define the outcome’
Now, this is not to say what has been going on at the Scottish Parliament is immaterial. Anything that relates to handling sexual harassment allegations is, of course, of critical importance, but government processes are not what people vote on no matter how much they tweaked the polls against the Scottish Government.
Issues like education, lockdown, poverty and unemployment were at the forefront of minds and most admitted the constitution will be what defines the outcome on May 6 2021.
However, securing a mandate for a second referendum just got a bit more difficult.