EWAN GURR: Brexit polls suggest people’s vote would end with same result as first referendum

A fortnight ago, within 24 hours of one another, I had two encounters at opposite ends of the economic spectrum.

John Curtice

The first was a breakfast gathering of a few hundred businessmen and women featuring the UK poll expert Professor John Curtice at Dundee’s Apex Hotel.

The second was an afternoon at Dundee foodbank.

However, what both experiences had in common was the topic of discussion – Brexit.

Like a political prophet among men, Prof Curtice said he believed that the approaching prospect of a no-deal Brexit would lead to the fragmentation of the presiding UK Government – a statement that was given credence when it was revealed last week that up to 22 Cabinet resignations could follow if no deal goes ahead.

He added: “The real question now is not what most people want but what most people are most willing to put up with.”

On the unlikely prospect of a people’s vote, Prof Curtice said that there has been little movement between those who voted leave and remain, which suggests the likelihood of a different result could depend on whether eligible new voters registered and then turned out.

However, he also said polls suggest a second referendum and a different outcome are both unlikely.