New figures have revealed Dundee’s population could buck a national trend and decline over the next quarter of a century.
Figures from the National Records of Scotland show that by the year 2042, the city’s population will have decreased by 0.6% This marks a fall from from 148,750 at the start of 2018 down to a projected number of 147,990 by the beginning of the year 2042.
The news comes just weeks after it was revealed that births in the city had fallen by a fifth in 10 years – with 9.3 births for every 1,000 people in the city in the last three months of 2019 compared to the same period in 2009 when there were 11.7 births per 1,000 people.
International migrations could be the biggest driver of any population increase across Scotland and in the city of Dundee, this is projected to increase by 3% by mid-2028.
The stats show that people from the rest of the UK and abroad will make up almost 2% of the city’s population by the end of the next decade.
Only five council areas in Scotland are projected to have natural population growth, with more births than deaths over the 10 years to mid-2028.
Life expectancy in the city is also is also to increase over the next 25 years and is projected to be 77.8 years for males by the end of 2043 (up from 74.8 years at the end of 2018). Dundee women also saw a slight increase, with life expectancy for them rising from 80.2 years at the end of 2019 to 82.6 years by 2043.
The increased life expectancy also means that the number of people aged 75 and over living in Dundee is projected to rise by almost 10% in the next decade. However, this projection is second lowest across the whole of Scotland – with only Glasgow having a lower growth rate in this demographic.
Instead, the most populated demographic in the City of Discovery is forecase to be those aged between 15 and 29 years of age – with an estimated 22.4 percent (33,172) of the city falling under this category by 2028.
Speaking about the national trend, Alan Ferrier, head of demography statistics for the national records, said: “While Scotland’s overall population is projected to increase over the next decade, there is variation across Scotland, with some councils projected to decline in population.
“In many areas of Scotland, the number of births are projected to continue to be lower than deaths, highlighting that migration remains the key driver of population increase.”
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