In addition, she warns that while preparatory work is under way nationally to produce a vaccine, specific vaccines for the new flu virus are unlikely to be available in the early stages of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, information from previous pandemics suggests that 10% or more of the population will have to take time off work. Further absences may be caused by staff needing time off to look after family members who are ill as well as because of transport disruption.

Pandemic flu will also impact on other services, including the local authority, police, food supply and distribution, fuel supply and business in general.

These statements come in a report, outlining Fife’s involvement in the UK flu pandemic contingency plan, to be presented to members of the NHS Fife board when they meet in Cupar tomorrow.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has urged governments to update their flu contingency plans amid claims up to 50 million people could die if a pandemic is triggered by the development of a new strain of bird flu in Asia, and the world is not prepared.

The UK government announced last month it was stockpiling almost 15 million doses of anti-flu drugs in a bid to beat the virus, which experts say could kill half a million people in the UK, including 70,000 Scots.

With these vaccine doses set to take up to two years to arrive, however, Professor Hugh Pennington, president of the Society for General Microbiology, and a leading authority on the subject, has criticised ministers’ optimistic attitude to the potential pandemic, warning thousands more could die.

Whilst the WHO and other experts consider the world is overdue for the next pandemic, Dr Macdonald says no one can predict when it will occur.

Dr Macdonald says guidance was issued by the UK health departments on March 1.

Planning for a pandemic requires consideration of the impact on public health and the NHS as well as a wide range of impacts that go beyond the healthcare system.

The aim is that a response will be coherent across the UK.

Flu pandemic plans have been in place in Scotland for a number of years. The plan for NHS Fife — one of a range of emergency plans — was last revised in February last year and is being updated in light of recent guidance.

The NHS Fife chief executive sits on the Fife emergency planning policy group, which will co-ordinate the strategic response across different agencies in Fife.

Within NHS Fife, the department of public health has set up an executive team to determine the strategic component of the Fife Pandemic Plan. Dr Macdonald says it will be important to ensure the plan has wide ownership across Fife, and once drafted, an exercise will be set up to test its robustness.