| The figures show that, overall, pupil numbers are likely to fall across Scotland from the current level of 788,000 to 675,000 in 2014, a drop of 14%. This is mainly due to very low birth rates over the past few years.
In secondary schools, pupil numbers are expected to drop from 318,000 to 313,000 by 2006. The fall will hit all local authorities with Falkirk likely to experience the smallest fall of 4.2% and Dundee the largest at 6.2%, excluding any effect from the mainstreaming of pupils with special education needs.
The overall drop in secondary numbers between 2003 and 2014 has been estimated at 16%.
Where primary schools are concerned, the projected drop by 2014 is slightly less at 14% with a steady decline up to 2008 and then a slower fall.
The falls are in line with the anticipated decrease in the number of children of school age but have also been adjusted to take account of the potential impact of educating pupils with special needs in mainstream schools. The effect is already becoming evident with a drop over the last year in the number of pupils in special schools from 7267 to 7012.
There was a slight increase of 1% to 1314 in the number of pupils who received their education at home or in hospital due to prolonged ill health or through special arrangements put in place as a result of family illness. A further 700 children received their education at home, either as a result of special circumstances, such as geographical remoteness, or through parental choice.
In all, fewer than one in a hundred children is educated at home due to parental choice.
In anticipation of the fall in pupil numbers, local authorities have already started reducing the number of Scottish schools. Over the last year, 29 primary schools have disappeared either through closure or merger with other schools. |
